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Most Americans will eventually receive Social Security and Medicare benefits. Each year, 社会保障和医疗保险信托基金的受托人向国会发布冗长的报告,评估这些重要项目的健康状况.  The newest reports, released on April 22, 2020, 讨论当前的财政状况和两个项目面临的持续的财政挑战,并预测2021年的社会保障生活成本调整(COLA).

How Social Security and Medicare will be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain; the Trustees acknowledge that the estimates and analysis included in the reports do not reflect the potential effects.

Social Security Trust Funds

The Social Security program consists of two parts, 每个人都有自己的金融账户(信托基金),该账户持有用来支付社保福利的社保工资税. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program. The combined programs are referred to as  OASDI.  Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. 国库和来自福利税的所得税收入也存在这些账户中. 本年度不需要支付福利和行政费用的资金被(通过法律)投资于由美国政府担保的特别国债.S. government and earn interest. As a result, 社会保障信托基金已经建立了储备,如果工资税收入不足以支付全额福利,可以用来支付福利义务.

注意,受托人根据OASI和DI (OASDI)联合信托基金提供了某些预测. However, these projections are hypothetical, because the trusts are separate, and generally, 一个项目的税收和储备不能用于资助另一个项目.

Highlights of Social Security Trustees Report

  • 社会保障的总成本预计将低于2020年的总收入,而高于2021年及其后几年的总收入(包括利息). The U.S. 财政部将需要从信托基金储备中撤出,以帮助支付福利. 托管人预计,假设的联合信托基金储备(OASDI)将在2035年耗尽, the same as projected in last year’s report unless Congress acts.
  • 假设的综合信托基金储备在2035年耗尽, 仅工资税收入就足以支付约79%的计划福利, with the percentage falling gradually to 73% by 2094.
  • The OASI Trust Fund, when considered separately, is projected to be depleted in 2034, the same as projected in last year’s report. 单是工资税收入就足以支付计划福利的76%.
  • The DI Trust Fund is expected to be depleted in 2065, 13 years later than projected in last year’s report. For the second year in a row, the depletion date has changed significantly, 这反映了过去几年来,福利申请和目前领取福利的残疾工人总数都在下降. Once the DI Trust Fund is depleted, 单是工资税收入就足以支付92%的预定福利.
  • Based on the “intermediate” assumptions in this year’s report, 社会保障局预测生活费用调整(COLA), which will be announced in the fall of 2020, will be 2.3% (last year’s report projected a COLA of 1.8% and the actual COLA was 1.6%). This COLA would apply to benefits starting in January 2021.

Medicare Trust Funds

There are two Medicare trust funds. 医院保险(HI)信托基金帮助支付医院护理(医疗保险A部分费用). 补充医疗保险信托基金由两个独立帐户组成, 一份覆盖医疗保险B部分(帮助支付医生和门诊费用),一份覆盖医疗保险D部分(帮助支付处方药福利).

Highlights of Medicare Trustees Report

  • 从2008年到2015年,医疗保险HI信托基金的年度成本每年都超过了税收收入. There were small fund surpluses in 2016 and 2017. 2018年和2019年,支出超过收入,预计以后所有年份都将出现赤字.
  • The HI Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in 2026, the same year as projected in last year’s report. Once the HI Trust Fund is depleted, 税收和保险费收入仍将覆盖项目预计成本的90%, 到2044年下降到78%,然后逐渐上升到2094年的90%. 受托人注意到,医疗保险成本的长期预测是高度不确定的,因为医疗保健的前景正在转变, and the effects are unknown.

Why are Social Security and Medicare Facing Financial Challenges?

社会保障和医疗保险主要是通过征收工资税筹集资金的. Because of demographic and economic factors, including higher retirement rates and lower birth rates, there will be fewer workers per beneficiary over the long term, worsening the strain on the trust funds.

What is Being Done to Address These Challenges?

两份报告都继续敦促国会尽快解决这些项目所面临的财政挑战,以便解决方案不那么激烈,可以逐步实施, lessening the impact on the public. 结合下面的一些解决方案也可以减少任何一个解决方案的影响.

  • Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.40%). 根据今年的报告,工资税立即和永久增加3.14 percentage points to 15.要解决长期收入缺口,需要54%的资金(4.13 percentage points to 16.53% if the increase started in 2035).
  • 提高或取消目前受社会保障工资税限制的工资上限(137美元),700 in 2020).
  • 将法定退休年龄提高到67岁以上(适用于1960年或以后出生的人).
  • Reducing future benefits. According to this year’s report, to address the long-term revenue shortfall, 对于所有当前和未来的受益人,计划福利必须立即和永久地减少约19%, 如果只对那些在2020年或更晚开始有资格享受福利的人实施减税,则减少约23%.
  • Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
  • 以不同的方式计算每年的生活费用调整津贴.

你可以在ssa上查看2020年社会保障和医疗保险受托人报告的综合摘要和社会保障报告的完整副本.gov.  You can find the full Medicare report at cms.gov.

At Austin Asset, we are Fee-Only Financial Advisors. 365app官方版下载寻求通过真实和持久的关系为财富带来清晰和目的. For Life.


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